Monday, 10 May 2010

Don’t panic… now you can panic

A very quick article before I get back to the last fixing of my ICT work (oh how I love it...) I would usually wait until I had more time to tap this out, but since events are unfolding as I attack the keys, I thought I'd whizz it out now. If you hadn't already heard, Gordon Brown said he'll be resigning as leader of Labour, telling his party to hold a leadership contest in which he'll play no part. That's left Labour-Lib Dem talks open, and there's no possible positive outcome if the talks are successful.

This should worry you unless you want a government with Labour, the Lib Dems, and just about every party under the sun other except the one with the largest mandate to govern - the Conservatives. The main obstacle to the Clegginator forming a coalition with Labour was Brown - he's unpopular, and they just don't seem to like each other. However, Gordon saying he'll step aside and will have been replaced by a new leader by Autumn at the latest (though it looks like it'll be long before then) means that the Lib Dems are more likely to form a coalition with the party they seem to agree with more.

The replacement would be one of the Millipede brothers - most likely David, unless he sows himself together with Ed and they govern as Siamese twins; Ed Balls - the incompetent, patronising, controlling oaf; or Harriet Harman - the useless, self-righteous, feminist, hypocritical twazzock.

If it were just Labour and the Lib Dems, it would be bad enough, but that would leave them short of a majority. The two parties would have to enter into negotiations with a myriad of small parties - all of them except Sinn Fein, which I can't see working since they don't even take their seats.

The Guardian's coalition maker
A Conservative-Lib Dem coalition would give them a reasonable majority, but a Lab-Lib coalition would require a rainbow of other parties to give them even a small majority:
And I'm already getting angry at Labour MPs saying that most of the country don't want the Conservatives in government - apparently evidenced by them having 36% of the votes. Of course, this logic didn't apply when Labour formed a government in 2005 with only 35% of the votes. Mr John Mann, you can't use proportional-based statistics to justify an unstable, unfair coalition when your party supports FPTP, and is begrudgingly moving towards the Alternative Vote system, and only because it would work to Labour's benefit.

Another clear disadvantage is that it's going to slow everything down. It's taken them days to discuss with the Conservatives, and they've still not reached anything concrete. Just imagine how long it's going to take for them to strike a deal with Labour and all the little parties. The SNP and Plaid Cymru will demand more funding for their countries in a time of recession, and if the Lib Dems don't want to ally with the Tories, they'll bend over backwards for their demands, and Labour will also give in since they'll do anything to stay on in power. Whilst all this horse-trading goes ahead, we're left with a PM squatting in number 10, and the markets will be spiralling out of control. They seem to have settled down a bit following the Greek settlement and the prospect of a Conservative-Lib Dem coalition, but if the prospect of a Labour-Lib Dem-DUP-SNP-Plaid Cymru-SDLP-Alliance-Green scares the bejeezus out of me, it'll send the markets into full-scale panic madness.

It was also interesting to see that Broon tried to justify the potential of another unelected PM being hoisted on us by saying something along the lines of: "We have a parliamentary, not a Presidential style in this country." Yes we do - when it suits you, otherwise you dominate your government and Parliament like a President. I would have respected that statement had he done anything to restore the power of his Cabinet and Parliament, but he hasn't.

Expect another election in a few months time if this rainbow coalition goes ahead. It will collapse under the weight of all the varying demands by a bunch of parties who will continue to build up debt for the next couple of years. One final thing: I said the other day on Tom Harris' blog "Don't bother lying on BBC News again - we all know you'd gladly get rid of Brown if it meant you had a higher chance of staying on to govern." He didn't allow the comment, but apparently I was right.

Anyway, in summary: we're fucked.

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