Sunday, 18 April 2010

Brown won’t go the whole 5 yards

Again today on the Andrew Marr show, the subject of whether Brown will serve a full 5 year term came up. And, in typical style, Gordon dodged the question. This comes shortly after Mandelslime said, when contrasting the choice between Brown and Cameron:
"They [the electorate] either go five more years or four or three, or however many it is, with the person they know and can depend on, or switch horses mid-stream before we have fully come through the recession and in doing so take a heck of a gamble."



So, Mandelson's already made a very clear suggestion that Brown won't stay a full 5 year term, and now Brown today on the Andrew Marr show would only go as far as to say he has "A five year manifesto", and would not confirm that he would remain in office for five years. I think we could see a repeat of the 2005 election, but Tony Blair barefaced lied to the public (he's good at doing that) and said he would stay on for full third term, only then to hand over to Gordo in mid-2007.

Since Gordon's not as good at lying without it showing, he probably decided to just dodge the question, and went for the safe line of having a five year manifesto. By saying that, he could only have made it more clear he doesn't plan to stay on for a full term if he'd come outright and said he'll be standing down.

Presuming they win the election, who would be replacing him if he knocks off early? Likely contenders are the Milliband brothers, with David, as Foreign Secretary, being higher up the pecking order than Ed, who fulfils the dull and unimportant role of Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change. Thrilling. Another potential leader would be - and hold onto your stomach - Ed Balls. No-one wants to see that - he's an annoying, patronising, useless control freak.

Of course, I have forgotten something here - my puny mind cannot begin to comprehend the carefully thought out PR of the Labour party. Perhaps this has all be deliberately done, because the party recognise that Brown is hardly the most popular of people, and perhaps even one of the least popular Prime Ministers ever. These hints about Brown standing down early could be used to try to win a few more votes from those who see themselves as natural Labour voters, but who don't like Gordon Brown. If there's the prospect of someone taking over a few years down the line, they may be able to bring themselves to vote for Labour.

Another interpretation is that Mandelson is plotting the death of Brown.

I think it's most likely that Brown would serve a couple of years as Prime Minister and leader of the Labour party, and then stand down once we're out of the woods in terms of recession. He'll then take all the praise, and stand down in a shower of public praise from his party about how he saved the world.

At any rate, this is all quite academic, because the chance of a Labour outright majority are very slim. Thank God for that.

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